QB Rankings

Quarterback boom/bust calls from a form + opponent-defense classifier. The hardest position to beat consensus on — we publish that too. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

0.27

BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)

23%

TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE

0.28

RANK CORRELATION

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SCORINGIdentical in standard, half and full PPR — QBs don't catch passes (4-pt pass TD).

RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUSTFLOORCEILING

▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence

1BUFJosh Allen@ NE36%14%14.429.7▼

2LAMatthew Staffordvs DET31%15%14.228.2▼

3NYGJaxson Dartvs WAS27%22%10.126.0▼

● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes

4DALDak Prescottvs MIN20%25%12.524.9▼

6JAXTrevor Lawrencevs NYJ18%25%11.823.4▼

7SFBrock Purdyvs TEN18%25%12.226.6▼

▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate

5CINJoe Burrowvs BAL19%27%12.324.2▼

8DETJared Goff@ LA18%27%10.321.8▼

9PHIJalen Hurtsvs LV17%28%10.820.8▼

10NYGJameis Winstonvs WAS16%33%10.222.3▼

11NEDrake Mayevs BUF16%36%10.423.3▼

12HOUC.J. Stroudvs ARI15%34%12.625.2▼

13CHICaleb Williamsvs CLE14%28%10.324.7▼

14KCPatrick Mahomesvs LAC14%31%10.923.1▼

15DENBo Nixvs GB10%38%9.720.4▼

16LACJustin Herbert@ KC10%39%6.820.9▼

17ARIJacoby Brissett@ HOU4%48%8.622.1▼

18INDPhilip Rivers@ SEA4%62%7.117.7▼

form_CAL_TUNED — Form + opponent-defense classifier (calibrated) · QB v1 · 2025 Week 15 snapshot · format-invariant scoring · floor/ceiling are 20th/80th percentile outcomesHow accurate is this? →

Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.