2026 SEASON · WEEK 6 · SATURDAY FINAL

QB Rankings

Quarterback boom/bust calls built on recent form and the opponent defense. The hardest position to beat consensus on — we publish that too. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

BOOM = 25+ ptsBUST = under 13 pts4-pt pass TD (same in every format).A MID label means the model has no confident boom or bust call.
Rated this week: every listed starter with at least one NFL game. Backups show on the watch list, not the board. The two right-hand columns are the model's 10th and 90th percentile weeks, not a floor or a ceiling.
0.27
BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)
23%
TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE
0.28
RANK CORRELATION
SCORINGIdentical in standard, half and full PPR — QBs don't catch passes (4-pt pass TD).
RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUST10TH PCT90TH PCT
▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence
1BUFJosh Allen@ LV@ LV55%7% ▼17.232.2▼
2SFBrock Purdyvs WASvs WAS37%11% ▼13.631.0▼
3CHICaleb Williams@ ATL@ ATL28%18% ▼12.429.9▼
4WASJayden Daniels@ SF@ SF23%21% ▼8.234.4▼
5LAMatthew Staffordvs ARIvs ARI32%12% ▼10.828.8▼
6GBJordan Lovevs DALvs DAL28%18% ▼9.726.3▼
7NEDrake Mayevs NYJvs NYJ22%21% ▼8.232.0▼
● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes
8DALDak Prescott@ GB@ GB19%28% ▼8.324.7▼
9ATLMichael Penix Jr.vs CHIvs CHI16%29% ▼8.827.0▼
▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate
10INDDaniel Jonesvs TENvs TEN14%31% ▼7.926.4▼
11LVKirk Cousinsvs BUFvs BUF16%30% ▼6.924.4▼
12NOTyler Shough@ NYG@ NYG15%33% ▼8.025.6▼
13JAXTrevor Lawrencevs HOUvs HOU15%33% ▼6.528.9▼
14KCPatrick Mahomesvs LACvs LAC13%31% ▼9.224.4▼
15NYGJameis Winstonvs NOvs NO15%33% ▼6.727.1▼
16BALTyler Huntley@ CLE@ CLE7%41% ▼7.623.2▼
17ARIJacoby Brissett@ LA@ LA15%36% ▼6.423.4▼
18CARBryce Young@ PHI@ PHI8%42% ▼7.324.3▼
19DENBo Nixvs SEAvs SEA5%43% ▼6.423.5▼
20TBJalon Danielsvs PITvs PIT5%47% ▼5.324.6▼
21SEASam Darnold@ DEN@ DEN5%43% ▼6.525.2▼
22CLEDeshaun Watsonvs BALvs BAL5%54% ▼5.422.1▼
23TENCam Ward@ IND@ IND8%42% ▼6.919.3▼
24HOUC.J. Stroud@ JAX@ JAX8%42% ▼6.523.5▼
25LACJustin Herbert@ KC@ KC5%57% ▼5.519.4▼
26NYJGeno Smith@ NE@ NE5%49% ▼4.222.7▼
27PITAaron Rodgers@ TB@ TB5%57% ▼6.820.6▼
28PHITanner McKeevs CARvs CAR5%43% ▼6.018.6▼
How accurate is this? →
Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.