TE Rankings

Tight end is the most boom/bust position in fantasy — our calls hit 40% of top-5 booms in the held-out 2025 test, double chance. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

0.39

BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)

40%

TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE

0.41

RANK CORRELATION

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SCORINGHalf PPR

RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUSTFLOORCEILING

▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence

1SFGeorge Kittlevs TEN42%8%5.117.2▼

2ARITrey McBride@ HOU40%8%7.720.0▼

3KCTravis Kelcevs LAC31%16%3.010.1▼

4NYGTheo Johnsonvs WAS29%18%2.111.5▼

5BUFDalton Kincaid@ NE29%19%3.110.1▼

6CLEHarold Fannin Jr.@ CHI28%11%4.415.2▼

● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes

7NEHunter Henryvs BUF27%16%3.512.1▼

8JAXBrenton Strangevs NYJ26%20%3.212.9▼

9LVBrock Bowers@ PHI26%17%3.610.5▼

10HOUDalton Schultzvs ARI26%16%3.713.8▼

12PHIDallas Goedertvs LV24%27%2.311.1▼

13ATLKyle Pitts@ TB23%12%2.812.5▼

14CHIColston Lovelandvs CLE23%21%3.710.7▼

15NOJuwan Johnsonvs CAR23%21%3.212.2▼

16DALJake Fergusonvs MIN23%25%3.011.9▼

17BALMark Andrews@ CIN22%27%1.912.5▼

18SEAAJ Barnervs IND19%26%2.511.7▼

19BUFDawson Knox@ NE19%22%3.19.6▼

22INDTyler Warren@ SEA15%23%2.49.4▼

▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate

11LAColby Parkinsonvs DET25%28%2.29.8▼

20LACOronde Gadsden II@ KC16%31%1.811.7▼

21MINT.J. Hockenson@ DAL16%30%1.911.7▼

23CINMike Gesickivs BAL15%35%2.58.9▼

24DENEvan Engramvs GB14%39%1.99.7▼

25MIADarren Waller@ PIT13%33%2.510.4▼

26PITDarnell Washingtonvs MIA11%43%1.26.4▼

27TENGunnar Helm@ SF10%42%1.78.4▼

28TENChig Okonkwo@ SF9%47%1.37.5▼

29PITPat Freiermuthvs MIA9%51%1.05.3▼

30BUFJackson Hawes@ NE8%54%0.93.8▼

31NYGDaniel Bellingervs WAS8%57%1.17.1▼

32CHICole Kmetvs CLE8%52%1.27.1▼

33MINJosh Oliver@ DAL5%63%0.35.4▼

form_logistic_TUNED — Form + opponent-defense classifier · TE v1 · 2025 Week 15 snapshot · half-PPR scoring · floor/ceiling are 20th/80th percentile outcomesHow accurate is this? →

Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.