2026 SEASON · WEEK 6 · SATURDAY FINAL

WR Rankings

Wide receiver boom/bust probabilities — 37% of our top-5 boom calls hit in the held-out 2025 test, nearly double chance. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

BOOM = 16+ ptsBUST = under 5 ptshalf-PPR.A MID label means the model has no confident boom or bust call.
Rated this week: players averaging 7+ half-PPR points over their last six games (3+ games played), plus each team's listed starter (the depth chart #1 with the most snaps), with at least one NFL game. Rookies and role-changers join once they have a game on record and clear the bar; until then they show on the watch list. The two right-hand columns are the model's 10th and 90th percentile weeks, not a floor or a ceiling.
0.36
BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)
37%
TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE
0.31
RANK CORRELATION
SCORINGHalf PPR
RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUST10TH PCT90TH PCT
▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence
1LAPuka Nacuavs ARIvs ARI48%6% ▼9.131.6▼
2SEAJaxon Smith-Njigba@ DEN@ DEN34%13% ▼4.720.8▼
3NOChris Olave@ NYG@ NYG30%16% ▼5.121.1▼
4DALCeeDee Lamb@ GB@ GB32%14% ▼4.424.6▼
5ATLDrake Londonvs CHIvs CHI26%20% ▼6.022.9▼
6LADavante Adamsvs ARIvs ARI40%9% ▼4.824.4▼
7SFMike Evansvs WASvs WAS37%12% ▼3.923.0▼
8NYGMalik Nabersvs NOvs NO25%19% ▼4.221.5▼
9GBChristian Watsonvs DALvs DAL24%22% ▼5.722.5▼
10BALZay Flowers@ CLE@ CLE24%22% ▼3.719.0▼
11NYJGarrett Wilson@ NE@ NE23%22% ▼3.121.2▼
12CARTetairoa McMillan@ PHI@ PHI27%19% ▼3.520.1▼
13DALGeorge Pickens@ GB@ GB23%23% ▼2.520.3▼
14NEA.J. Brownvs NYJvs NYJ33%14% ▼5.012.0▼
● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes
15HOUNico Collins@ JAX@ JAX22%23% ▼2.418.7▼
16JAXParker Washingtonvs HOUvs HOU22%25% ▼2.420.1▼
17WASTerry McLaurin@ SF@ SF22%24% ▼2.919.8▼
18PITDK Metcalf@ TB@ TB19%25% ▼3.118.3▼
19CLEDenzel Bostonvs BALvs BAL21%23% ▼2.718.0▼
20PHIDeVonta Smithvs CARvs CAR19%25% ▼2.316.5▼
21WASStefon Diggs@ SF@ SF22%21% ▼2.113.9▼
▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate
22ARIMichael Wilson@ LA@ LA18%29% ▼4.021.6▼
23GBMatthew Goldenvs DALvs DAL20%28% ▼2.020.1▼
24CHILuther Burden III@ ATL@ ATL15%34% ▼3.720.9▼
25CARJalen Coker@ PHI@ PHI14%35% ▼1.920.9▼
26INDJosh Downsvs TENvs TEN15%34% ▼2.618.2▼
27NERomeo Doubsvs NYJvs NYJ15%34% ▼1.918.1▼
28TENWan'Dale Robinson@ IND@ IND13%36% ▼2.918.2▼
29LVTre Tuckervs BUFvs BUF14%36% ▼2.119.3▼
30CHIRome Odunze@ ATL@ ATL17%31% ▼1.920.7▼
31TENCarnell Tate@ IND@ IND15%33% ▼2.019.9▼
32NODevaughn Vele@ NYG@ NYG13%36% ▼2.218.9▼
33JAXJakobi Meyersvs HOUvs HOU16%32% ▼1.619.6▼
34BUFKhalil Shakir@ LV@ LV15%35% ▼1.715.4▼
35KCXavier Worthyvs LACvs LAC17%32% ▼1.217.5▼
36TBEmeka Egbukavs PITvs PIT15%32% ▼1.116.1▼
37BUFKeon Coleman@ LV@ LV15%34% ▼1.016.5▼
38DENCourtland Suttonvs SEAvs SEA14%33% ▼2.017.9▼
39LACLadd McConkey@ KC@ KC12%37% ▼1.316.4▼
40CHIKalif Raymond@ ATL@ ATL9%46% ▼1.917.3▼
41WASAntonio Williams@ SF@ SF9%46% ▼1.315.6▼
42PHIDarius Coopervs CARvs CAR9%45% ▼1.115.2▼
43HOUMarvin Harrison Jr.@ JAX@ JAX11%39% ▼0.918.1▼
44HOUXavier Hutchinson@ JAX@ JAX9%47% ▼1.615.6▼
45LACQuentin Johnston@ KC@ KC11%41% ▼1.114.7▼
46CARBrycen Tremayne@ PHI@ PHI6%54% ▼2.010.0▼
47SEATory Horton@ DEN@ DEN9%45% ▼0.615.7▼
How accurate is this? →
Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.