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2025 SEASON · WEEK 15 · LAST-SEASON SNAPSHOT · 2026 BOARDS START TUE SEP 8

WR Rankings

Wide receiver boom/bust probabilities — 37% of our top-5 boom calls hit in the held-out 2025 test, nearly double chance. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

0.36

BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)

37%

TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE

0.31

RANK CORRELATION

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SCORINGHalf PPR

RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUSTFLOORCEILING

▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence

1LAPuka Nacuavs DET43%10%6.620.4▼

2SEAJaxon Smith-Njigbavs IND41%10%6.819.8▼

3CINJa'Marr Chasevs BAL39%10%7.521.0▼

4DALGeorge Pickensvs MIN37%13%7.419.3▼

5DALCeeDee Lambvs MIN33%13%6.018.8▼

6HOUNico Collinsvs ARI33%15%7.518.8▼

7PHIA.J. Brownvs LV33%13%5.920.0▼

8LADavante Adamsvs DET32%20%4.920.1▼

9NYGWan'Dale Robinsonvs WAS28%14%6.718.3▼

10KCRashee Ricevs LAC26%14%6.016.3▼

11BALZay Flowers@ CIN25%21%6.216.8▼

12DETJameson Williams@ LA25%21%5.819.8▼

13DETAmon-Ra St. Brown@ LA25%21%5.419.7▼

14SFJauan Jenningsvs TEN25%21%5.017.3▼

15MIAJaylen Waddle@ PIT24%21%5.216.4▼

16TBMike Evansvs ATL24%21%5.115.8▼

17PHIDeVonta Smithvs LV24%21%5.416.0▼

18TBEmeka Egbukavs ATL24%21%6.114.6▼

19CARTetairoa McMillan@ NO24%21%4.814.9▼

20ARIMichael Wilson@ HOU24%17%5.014.0▼

● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes

21JAXJakobi Meyersvs NYJ22%22%4.216.4▼

22TBJalen McMillanvs ATL20%23%4.913.1▼

23GBChristian Watson@ DEN20%23%4.616.0▼

24WASDeebo Samuel Sr.@ NYG20%23%3.915.4▼

25WASTerry McLaurin@ NYG19%25%4.517.9▼

26NOChris Olavevs CAR19%25%4.716.1▼

27PITDK Metcalfvs MIA19%25%5.218.2▼

▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate

28JAXBrian Thomas Jr.vs NYJ19%32%2.914.3▼

29JAXParker Washingtonvs NYJ18%31%3.814.9▼

30NEStefon Diggsvs BUF18%32%2.612.9▼

31NEMack Hollinsvs BUF15%36%2.613.4▼

32HOUJayden Higginsvs ARI14%33%3.212.9▼

33LACLadd McConkey@ KC14%32%3.513.8▼

34DENTroy Franklinvs GB14%36%2.315.9▼

35DENCourtland Suttonvs GB13%32%5.013.4▼

36NEKayshon Bouttevs BUF12%55%0.69.9▼

37INDMichael Pittman@ SEA11%32%3.611.3▼

38TBTez Johnsonvs ATL11%45%2.98.2▼

39CHIDJ Moorevs CLE11%44%3.59.8▼

40GBJayden Reed@ DEN11%44%2.312.1▼

41INDAlec Pierce@ SEA10%42%4.311.2▼

42DALRyan Flournoyvs MIN9%54%1.67.2▼

43NEDeMario Douglasvs BUF9%79%1.39.2▼

44CLEJerry Jeudy@ CHI9%49%2.17.9▼

form_CAL_TUNED — Form + opponent-defense classifier (calibrated) · WR v1 · 2025 Week 15 snapshot · half-PPR scoring · floor/ceiling are 20th/80th percentile outcomesHow accurate is this? →

Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.