2026 SEASON · WEEK 6 · SATURDAY FINAL

RB Rankings

Running back boom & avoid calls — the strongest top-5 hit rate of any of our offensive models (44% vs ~20% by chance) in the held-out 2025 test. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

BOOM = 18+ ptsBUST = under 6 ptshalf-PPR.A MID label means the model has no confident boom or bust call.
Rated this week: players averaging 8+ half-PPR points over their last six games (3+ games played), plus each team's listed starter (the depth chart #1 with the most snaps) and anyone with 40%+ of his team's snaps in his last game or last three, with at least one NFL game. Rookies and role-changers join once they have a game on record and clear the bar; until then they show on the watch list. The two right-hand columns are the model's 10th and 90th percentile weeks, not a floor or a ceiling.
0.42
BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)
44%
TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE
0.42
RANK CORRELATION
SCORINGHalf PPR
RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUST10TH PCT90TH PCT
▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence
1LAKyren Williamsvs ARIvs ARI52%4% ▼8.730.9▼
2ATLBijan Robinsonvs CHIvs CHI36%8% ▼7.425.6▼
3SFChristian McCaffreyvs WASvs WAS34%12% ▼8.830.5▼
4KCKenneth Walker IIIvs LACvs LAC41%8% ▼8.326.7▼
5DALJavonte Williams@ GB@ GB29%13% ▼4.726.7▼
6BUFJames Cook@ LV@ LV29%15% ▼6.025.8▼
7BALDerrick Henry@ CLE@ CLE29%15% ▼7.125.3▼
8INDJonathan Taylorvs TENvs TEN34%13% ▼6.324.4▼
● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes
9LVAshton Jeantyvs BUFvs BUF25%15% ▼5.025.0▼
10NERhamondre Stevensonvs NYJvs NYJ25%15% ▼4.621.5▼
11PITJaylen Warren@ TB@ TB23%16% ▼5.021.4▼
12CARChuba Hubbard@ PHI@ PHI18%20% ▼4.221.1▼
13CHID'Andre Swift@ ATL@ ATL16%27% ▼4.222.3▼
14TBBucky Irvingvs PITvs PIT19%21% ▼4.621.6▼
15NYGCam Skattebovs NOvs NO17%21% ▼4.021.5▼
16TENTony Pollard@ IND@ IND15%21% ▼3.319.3▼
17JAXBhayshul Tutenvs HOUvs HOU15%21% ▼2.317.1▼
18SEAEmanuel Wilson@ DEN@ DEN14%28% ▼2.619.0▼
19GBMarShawn Lloydvs DALvs DAL9%32% ▼1.518.3▼
20DENJ.K. Dobbinsvs SEAvs SEA18%27% ▼3.320.0▼
21CLEQuinshon Judkinsvs BALvs BAL17%21% ▼4.117.5▼
22LACOmarion Hampton@ KC@ KC9%32% ▼2.019.6▼
23NOAlvin Kamara@ NYG@ NYG14%31% ▼1.113.9▼
24NYJBraelon Allen@ NE@ NE9%32% ▼3.018.8▼
25PHIDameon Piercevs CARvs CAR9%32% ▼2.018.9▼
▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate
26NETreVeyon Hendersonvs NYJvs NYJ9%49% ▼1.916.6▼
27CLEAudric Estimévs BALvs BAL13%37% ▼3.316.9▼
28BUFTy Johnson@ LV@ LV1%69% ▼1.117.6▼
29HOUWoody Marks@ JAX@ JAX7%33% ▼2.514.7▼
30WASRachaad White@ SF@ SF6%44% ▼1.316.3▼
31PITRico Dowdle@ TB@ TB6%57% ▼1.215.0▼
32DENRJ Harveyvs SEAvs SEA6%48% ▼1.110.4▼
33ATLBrian Robinsonvs CHIvs CHI1%69% ▼1.414.1▼
34TBKenny Gainwellvs PITvs PIT6%55% ▼1.510.0▼
35GBPierre Strongvs DALvs DAL6%55% ▼1.418.6▼
36BALJustice Hill@ CLE@ CLE1%63% ▼1.113.0▼
37ARITyler Allgeier@ LA@ LA6%55% ▼1.212.8▼
38TENTyjae Spears@ IND@ IND5%53% ▼1.311.0▼
39LACKimani Vidal@ KC@ KC1%69% ▼0.310.0▼
40SEAGeorge Holani@ DEN@ DEN0%69% ▼1.19.6▼
41NOCJ Donaldson@ NYG@ NYG0%82% ▼0.113.4▼
42PHICarson Steelevs CARvs CAR1%57% ▼1.416.2▼
How accurate is this? →
Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.