RB Rankings

Running back boom & avoid calls — the strongest top-5 hit rate of any of our offensive models (44% vs ~20% by chance) in the held-out 2025 test. Click any row for the model's reasoning.

0.42

BOOM F1 (2025 TEST)

44%

TOP-5 HIT VS ~20% CHANCE

0.42

RANK CORRELATION

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SCORINGHalf PPR

RKPLAYERMATCHUPBOOMBUSTFLOORCEILING

▲ BOOM TIERstart with confidence

1DETJahmyr Gibbs@ LA54%6%13.227.0▼

2SFChristian McCaffreyvs TEN46%6%12.925.5▼

3CINChase Brownvs BAL34%8%7.921.8▼

4MIADe'Von Achane@ PIT32%12%7.319.9▼

5BUFJames Cook@ NE32%12%8.121.7▼

6BALDerrick Henry@ CIN31%16%7.422.3▼

7ATLBijan Robinson@ TB30%12%7.719.4▼

8JAXTravis Etiennevs NYJ29%16%6.518.1▼

9LAKyren Williamsvs DET28%18%7.422.7▼

10NETreVeyon Hendersonvs BUF28%16%8.219.9▼

11TBBucky Irvingvs ATL28%16%8.722.9▼

12PHISaquon Barkleyvs LV28%16%7.021.2▼

● MID TIERno confident call either way — read the notes

13DALJavonte Williamsvs MIN22%18%6.117.7▼

14INDJonathan Taylor@ SEA22%19%5.415.6▼

15HOUWoody Marksvs ARI21%21%6.419.6▼

16LACOmarion Hampton@ KC21%24%3.917.2▼

17NYGTyrone Tracy Jr.vs WAS21%24%6.217.2▼

18CARRico Dowdle@ NO21%24%5.718.6▼

19CHIKyle Monangaivs CLE21%21%7.119.3▼

20KCKareem Huntvs LAC21%21%6.518.2▼

21GBJosh Jacobs@ DEN20%27%6.118.0▼

22SEAKenneth Walker IIIvs IND20%27%4.818.2▼

23CHID'Andre Swiftvs CLE14%25%7.117.5▼

24DENRJ Harveyvs GB14%25%4.716.6▼

▼ BUST TIERfade unless desperate

25CLEQuinshon Judkins@ CHI14%29%4.716.8▼

26NYGDevin Singletaryvs WAS14%32%4.215.5▼

27LVAshton Jeanty@ PHI13%28%5.912.8▼

28LACKimani Vidal@ KC13%31%3.816.6▼

29MINAaron Jones@ DAL13%36%2.915.2▼

30LABlake Corumvs DET13%36%2.210.8▼

31PITJaylen Warrenvs MIA13%28%5.415.2▼

32NYJBreece Hall@ JAX13%31%5.512.9▼

33TENTony Pollard@ SF12%35%2.514.3▼

34PITKenny Gainwellvs MIA12%35%5.09.9▼

35SEAZach Charbonnetvs IND12%36%3.110.4▼

36DETDavid Montgomery@ LA11%47%3.011.7▼

37ARIBam Knight@ HOU6%45%3.612.2▼

38TBSean Tuckervs ATL6%60%3.315.3▼

39ATLTyler Allgeier@ TB0%63%3.010.4▼

form_CAL_TUNED — Form + opponent-defense classifier (calibrated) · RB v1 · 2025 Week 15 snapshot · half-PPR scoring · floor/ceiling are 20th/80th percentile outcomesHow accurate is this? →

Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Kicker scoring has inherent randomness — we publish our misses. Not affiliated with the NFL. Not gambling advice.